#Bear market series
However, if we bundle up the series of slumps that marked the Great Depression, we get one giant bear lasting from September 1929 to January 1945. Shortest: six months (Coronavirus crash).Now we have a more realistic view of the impact of multiple bear markets.īear market recovery time, adjusted for inflation, and including the down leg measures: Here are the inflation-adjusted bear market recovery times for the S&P 500:Ĭalculations made using DQYDJ’s S&P 500 return calculator. We can calculate real-terms recoveries more accurately thanks to publicly available data for the US stock market. US bear market real-return recovery times Ironically, UK deflation shortens the real recovery time of our version of the 1929 crash.īut when it comes to the other three UK bear markets, factoring in the wealth-whipping headwind of inflation pushes out recovery times significantly. As opposed to four years and ten months in the nominal returns table above.Īnd using crude annual returns, I’ve calculated the real recovery time for a few more UK bear markets (dividends included) as follows: Bear market Professor Wade Pfau calculates the UK stock market took 11 years to recover in real terms from its 1972-74 crash. The question: how soon do we recover from a bear market, taking into account inflation? UK real-return bear market recovery times So we need to know how much our investments are worth in real terms.
Quite the buzz kill, right? The total recovery time was still over a year for even the short yet savage 1987 and pandemic crashes – despite the fact that both lasted only a couple of months as bear markets.Īnd grim as these totals already are, they also miss out a crucial component: inflation.īecause as investors living in the real world, we don’t care about the beauty contest that is nominal wealth. Shortest: one year and four months ( Coronavirus crash).The total length of a bear market including recovery time is: The total duration of a bear market event is more daunting when you add its downward leg to the recovery time back to breakeven:ĭata from the Timeline Chart 2022. That’s recovery time after the end of the bear market itself. Longest bear market recovery time was two years and seven months (Dotcom bust).Shortest bear market recovery time was 11 months (Fallout from the US ‘Vietnam War’ recession).Average bear market recovery time is 18 months.The END dates show when your investment finally breaks even – that is, when your investment is worth £100,000 again (dividends reinvested).
The graph line reveals the extent of the loss at market bottom. They calculated the recovery time for £100,000 of UK equities after each bear market from 1926 to the end of 2021.
#Bear market software
The financial software people at Timeline have produced an excellent chart tracing the severity and length of UK bear markets. Sadly, that’s a much longer slog… UK bear market recovery times Bears can be officially over in months.īut how long does it take us for us to recover our losses? To get back in the black? How l ong does it take equities to recover from a bear market?īy that I mean not just how long does it take for a bear market to end.
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